Okay, everything makes me wish this were Election Day — better yet, Inauguration Day — but hokey smokes, Bullwinkle, look at these numbers (emphases mine)!
Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has steadily increased since mid-September, when the race was essentially even. Shortly after the first presidential debate on Sept. 26, Obama moved to a 49% to 42% lead; that margin inched up to 50% to 40% in a poll taken just after the second debate. Currently, Obama enjoys his widest margin yet over McCain among registered voters, at 52% to 38%. When the sample of voters is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 39%. …
Obama’s gains notwithstanding, a widespread loss of confidence in McCain appears to be the most significant factor in the race at this point. Many more voters express doubts about McCain’s judgment than about Obama’s: 41% see McCain as "having poor judgment," while just 29% say that this trait describes Obama. Fewer voters also view McCain as inspiring than did so in mid-September (37% now, 43% then). By contrast, 71% of voters continue to think of Obama as inspiring. …
In addition, Sarah Palin appears to be a continuing — if not an increasing — drag on the GOP ticket. Currently, 49% of voters express an unfavorable opinion of Palin, while 44% have a favorable view. In mid-September, favorable opinions of Palin outnumbered negative ones by 54% to 32%. Women, especially women under age 50, have become increasingly critical of Palin: 60% now express an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 36% in mid-September. Notably, opinions of Palin have a greater impact on voting intentions than do opinions of Joe Biden, Obama’s running mate. …
More fascinating internals to be had at the link — but it all comes down to “This is the damnedest thang I’ve ever seen in the way of an election!”
When I read these polls and Obama’s chances, all of a sudden I realize that I am forgetting to breathe. I’m so anxxxious (with 3 x’es) for Nov. 5th to get here! And for Jan., so we can “get what we deserve”, as Observer sez.
Just heard Andrea Mitchell state that Palin’s numbers make her more of a drag on McCain than Bush. Talk about your self-inflicted wounds.
If you really want to understand polls and polling, ask President Dewey.
Obama’s quite cognizant of the problem of being too far out front in the polls. He’s publicly stated this several times recently. His campaign is working hard to avoid complacency; I’ve had eight e-mails from his campaign in the past three days urging me to help turn out the vote.