You see from that Obama bouncing around mostly 44-51% since April, and McCain 40-44% with a few exceptions. Obviously, the biggest exception was around the time of the Republican convention.
Obama today tied his record for highest number (51%) and extended his record for longest lead.
I’m going to isolate a detail. Below is what’s happened since the day of John McCain’s convention speech in front of the Beverly Hillbillies Mansion backdrop. The top is his speech and the collapse is everything since. McCain rocketed up from the Palin announcement to the speech and then the bottom fell out. He hasn’t even had a good dead cat bounce at the bottom there (I suppose I have stock market collapses on my mind for some reason), just sort of went thud. Of course, there’s a long four weeks to go.
Nate Silver on today’s polls: “As the political world’s focus shifts to the second presidential debate in Nashville, Barack Obama continues to expand his lead upon John McCain in all of our projection metrics, and now rates as almost a 9:1 [favorite] to win the election in November. …”