The lebm-o’clock update from NHC carries a 5-day map a tidge more relieving for south Florida (except the Keys, which are screwed) but more concerning for the rest of the Gulf. Wunderground founder Jeff Masters’ new post explains:
Ike has begun a west-southwest motion in recent hours, which increases the probability that the hurricane will enter the Southeast Bahama Islands on Sunday. The computer models which called for this more southerly path include the GFDL and HWRF models. With its latest run (06Z, 2am EDT) the GFDL takes Ike through the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 3 hurricane early Sunday morning. The HWRF has the same track, but makes Ike a Category 4. The two models then diverge, with the GFDL taking Ike into eastern Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane on Monday, and along the length of Cuba into the Florida Keys as a Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday morning. The HWRF has Ike skirting the northern coast of Cuba, arriving at Key Largo, Florida as a Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday night.
Considerable uncertainty surrounds the path of Ike once the storm reaches the vicinity of South Florida, since a trough of low pressure capable of turning Ike to the north will be passing to the north. A turn to the north over South Florida, or just on either side of the state is possible. One possible track, similar to the NOGAPS model forecast, takes Ike near or over Miami, then northwards towards North Carolina. This is a track similar to Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Another feasible track, similar to the HWRF solution, is like Hurricane Donna of 1960, which blasted through the Keys as a Category 4 hurricane, then up the west coast of Florida.
It is also possible that the trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Ike to the north, and that the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. A second trough of low pressure would then turn Ike north, resulting in a n eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas. This is the forecast of the ECMWF and GFS models. My current thinking is along these lines:
20% chance Ike will hit the east coast of Florida.
30% chance Ike will hit the Florida Keys.
30% chance Ike will hit Cuba. If this happens, there is 30% chance it would miss Florida and head into the Gulf of Mexico.
10% chance that Ike will miss Florida, but hit further north along the U.S. coast.
10% chance Ike will curve north out to sea and not hit the U.S.Overall, I’d give the Gulf Coast a 70% chance of getting hit (including the west coast of Florida).
“except the Keys, which are screwed”
The Keys are like a light bulb not a pregnant lady.
Unscrew the Keys!
“Unscrew the Keys!”
Gladly, ML, and I’ll throw in “Unblewed!” and “Untattooed!” free-gratis.
Thanks, the Keys are no longer screwed.
Save the "Unblewed!" and "Untattooed" for Key West.
Jeff Masters – “it would take only a very small deviation from the forecast track for Ike to spend much less time over Cuba and primarily track over the warm waters of the Florida Straits instead. I give it a 20% chance that Ike will defy the current forecast and arrive at the Keys as a major hurricane of Category 3 or 4 strength… an unexpected wobble to the north (and) Ike will be a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds…and a maximum storm tide of 9-10 feet. ”
Took Dr. Masters too long to update this blog.
ml
Gonna save my big WHEW for a couple of days, until I know we in FLA are fer-sher out of danger, ML, but it’s sure looking better.
I keep thinking about the folks in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, and most of all the godforsaken Haitians, run over by Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike — all within three weeks, and nowhere to shelter. Just damned unthinkable.