In ABC’s new poll, 50% of respondents call Sarah Palin unqualified to be President. Among the poll’s other findings (all interesting, according to the linked pdf of full results and questionnaire):
VOTE IMPACT — As noted, predisposed partisans on each side are more apt to react favorably to Palin and Biden. On Palin, conservatives by a 34-point margin say her addition to the ticket makes them more likely rather than less likely to support McCain; among Republicans it’s a 37-point positive margin, and among white evangelicals, 32 points. These are all heavily pro-McCain groups in the first place, but these numbers may reflect an enthusiasm — somewhat lacking in his campaign — that could impact their turnout.
At the same time, the story in the ideological center is different: Among moderates, Biden registers as a net 15-point positive for Obama. In the same group, Palin shows no effect on support for McCain.
This confirmation will perhaps comfort Mike Murphy who, like Peggy Noonan, got over his shock with the live mike and kept talking — but unlike her, didn’t try to weasel out of what they said to Chuck Todd:
About the loneliest precinct in the GOP these days is the one reserved for troublesome Republicans who think Gov. Sarah Palin was a poor VP choice, even after The Speech. Well, here I am. Hello? Anybody else? Wow, there is a big echo in here. …
Today, after Gov. Palin’s much applauded speech, my doubts remain. Again, it’s not that I don’t find her appealing. … What I don’t like is the effect I think Palin will ultimately have on the ticket. With all her charm, she is still a pick aimed squarely at the Republican base. In a high turnout Presidential year, I am not worried about turning out the base. I’m worried about everybody else we need to win and I fear that among those voters, Sarah Palin will be a dud. … Instead, I think she’ll ultimately be a polarizer. After last night’s smash, Republicans are in deep love. Nothing thrills ‘em like a good ‘us vs. them’ speech. But I’d guess that most Democrats had the opposite reaction. In a year where the Democrat generic numbers are 10+ points better than the Republican, I don’t like the math of a strategy that just polarized the election along party base lines. Among the vital sliver of voters in the middle, I think Palin’s rock solid social conservatism will be a turn off. And while voters may value vision over experience, Palin’s inexperience is a weakness, denying McCain an argument that has been helping him against Obama.
(h/t Laura Rozen for the new links)
Always beware a one day poll…
Good advice, sailor. I’m thinking the trend next week and later will be a bit more reliable (with the convention distortions settled out). But the debates are what I’m salivating for.
Will NMC be able to wrangle an invite to the one in Oxford? How utterly KEWELL would it be if he could live blog it for folo!?!
I think you meant to say “wangle,” Sailor.
Yep. Glad the typo police are vigilant today…
Newt cleans a plow at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjGhy8LVwAo
sailor, there’s a lot going on in Oxford, and I’ll blog what I can.
Thanks, NMC. I’ve heard it’s damn near impossible to get a pass to the debate. And while we’ll all be watching on the telly, thought it’d be interesting to have your take on all the personalities involved. You know, we need to know your take on what cocktails the press corps folks are drinkin’ at City Gro. and how a Beefeater and tonic vs a house Pinot Grigio might influence partisanship in reporting, or better yet–what the the prez candidates’ wives’ shoe selections mean…the real behind-the-scenes scoop, in other words. Can you deliver?
Tryin’ to be funny, not snarky to ya…
You did a great job for everyone during the Scruggs trial and after. I just think the press is getting carried away…
I understand, Sailor, and need to figure out how to post what I see…
NMC,
Burgundy Room has free wifi. I bet from the balcony of Grocery, you’d be able to access it.
Why is the mainstream media only touting the Presidential Debate being held in Mississippi and not explictly naming the town of Oxford?
TV needs to get the exact location correct and not just say Mississippi.
It’s interesting that independents aren’t going for Palin (yet). As sailor mentioned, though, it’s a day-one poll. My guess is that she’ll be interesting to some. Mike Murphy’s right about the Democratic reaction. I think most of us feel more concerned after that speech. It makes me even less sanguine about a McCain Administration than I was already.